Tag Archives: Short-term Planning

Is Planning an old idea whose time is up?

In the age of nano attention-spans of people, the tendency and respect for planning things upfront has taken a serious beating. The mainstream logic is to simply “play by the ear” because there are far too many moving parts to be completely accounted for and properly factored-in – and in any case, by the time the plan goes to execution, ground realities would have changed beyond recognition, thereby rendering the plan completely useless by that time. In software development, an inaccurate predictive long-range model such as Waterfall has been replaced by more accurate adaptive short-range Agile methods that solve the line-of-sight problem but don’t address the original problem – that of planning a large project with its own share of uncertainties.

While none of those arguments might be wrong par se, we conveniently ignore the fact that that is the nature of the beast, and we need to understand that planning is not a single-pass 100% process that stays current forever. Further, just because things will eventually change is not a good enough reason to abandon any systematic efforts to understand it, if not to tame it altogether!

Pillar on a railway trackWhile preparing my lecture notes for a recent class on planning, I decided to explore the subject of planning through the ages using various quotations over a period of time. I sorted them in chronological order in order to understand how human mind has evolved the thought process behind planning. What came out from this exercise surprised me – it seems like the values associated with planning are as timeless as the fundamental human nature. The age-old wisdom was that a “stitch in time saves nine” and hence there was a focus that “prevention is better than cure”. Some might argue their world was not so complex and dynamic. I disagree.

There world was highly uncertain, and hence inherently complex. With perhaps 95% of reasons behind mortality unexplainable, with perhaps 95% of scientific events being attributed to the Gods (mostly of the angry variety!) and no protection from animals, predators and even their own tribal enemies, how much more complexity do you need in a day? When faced such levels of uncertainty, the modern man is more likely to live life one day at a time. And yet, the thought process from yesteryears seems to indicate that they didn’t simply abandon long-range planning, on the contrary, they reinforced the values of such long-range planning as the only real way to deal with such uncertainties!

Here are some of the quotations that I discovered during my research:

  • If you are planning for a year, sow rice; if you are planning for a decade, plant trees; if you are planning for a lifetime, educate people – Chinese Proverb
  • A man who does not plan long ahead will find trouble at his door – Confucius (551-479 BC)
  •  Plan for what is difficult while it is easy, do what is great while it is small. The difficult things in this world must be done while they are easy, the greatest things in the world must be done while they are still small. For this reason sages never do what is great, and this is why they achieve greatness – Sun Tzu, Chinese General, The Art of War, 400 BC
  •  Before beginning, plan carefully – Marcus Tulius Cicero, Roman statesman and orator (106-43 BC)
  • Long-range planning works best in the short term – Euripides, poet (480-406 AD)
  • Forewarned, forearmed; to be prepared is half the victory – Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Spanish writer and author of Don Quixote (1547-1616). 
  • By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail – Benjamin Franklin
  • In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable – Dwight D. Eisenhower, general and president (1890 – 1969)
  • A plan which succeeds is bold, one which fails is reckless – General Karl von Clauswitz
  • Always plan ahead. It wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark – Richard Cushing, novelist
  • Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought – Bernard Baruch, A  stock broker, advisor to presidents Woodrow Wilson, Harry S. Truman, (1870-1965)
  • Those who plan do better than those who do not plan even thou they rarely stick to their plan – Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister
  • In the space of two days I had evolved two plans, wholly distinct, both of which were equally feasible. The point I am trying to bring out is that one does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit those plans. One tries to make plans fit the circumstances – General George Patton (1947).
  • A good plan today is better that a perfect plan tomorrow – George S. Patton
  • Planning is a process of choosing among those many options. If we do not choose to plan, then we choose to have others plan for us – Richard I. Winwood
  • Plans are only good intentions unless they immediately degenerate into hard work – Peter Drucker
  • Prediction is difficult, especially about the future – Yogi Berra, baseball catcher (1925-present)

Another interesting discovery was that planning didn’t mean people simply fell in love with their original plans. On the contrary, there are instances that people advocated not only adapting to changes, but rather incorporating mechanism to accommodate them upfront. Look at some of the quotations on this:

 

  • It’s a bad plan that admits of no modification – Publilius Syrus, Roman slave and poet (circa 100 BC)
  • Observe always that everything is the result of change, and get used to thinking that there is nothing Nature loves so well as to change existing forms and make new ones of them – Marcus Aurelius, emperor of Rome (121-180 AD)
  • It is not the strongest of the species that survive, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change – Charles Darwin, scientist

So, is the concept of ‘planning’ an overrated and old idea who time is up? I don’t think so. It only means that there is more need to refresh our understanding and explore how to evolve long-range planning methods to incorporate short-term changes such that agility is not lost at the tactical level, while near-sight changes don’t create a bullwhip effect on strategic plans.

Do you think inaccurate and uncertain proactive planning should be completely abandoned in favor of a highly accurate and definite reactive ‘planning’ (if that can still be called as ‘planning’, that is)?